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Economic Survey pegs India’s 2021-22 GDP growth at 11%

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Economic Survey 2020-21 tabled

Economy in current fiscal expected to contract by 7.7%

BK News

Srinagar, Jan 29: India’s real GDP to record a growth of 11% in 2021-22 and nominal GDP by 15.4% -the highest since independence, according to Economic Survey 2020-21 tabled by the Union Finance Minister Sitharaman in the Parliament on the first day of the budget session.

The V-shaped economic recovery is supported by the initiation of a mega vaccination drive with hopes of a robust recovery in the services sector and prospects for robust growth in consumption and investment, it said.

The Economic Survey 2020-21 states that the rebound will be led by the low base and continued normalization in economic activities as the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines gathers traction.

The fundamentals of the economy remain strong as gradual scaling back of lockdowns along with the astute support of Atmanirbhar Bharat Mission have placed the economy firmly on the path of revival.

This path would entail a growth in real GDP by 2.4% over the absolute level of 2019-20-implying that the economy would take two years to reach and go past the pre-pandemic level. These projections are in line with IMF estimate of real GDP growth of 11.5% in 2021-22 for India and 6.8% in 2022-23. India is expected to emerge as the fastest growing economy in the next two years as per IMF.

The Survey says, India’s mature policy response to this “once-in-a-century” crisis provides important lessons for democracies to avoid myopic policymaking and demonstrates the significant benefits of focusing on long-term gains.

India adopted a unique four-pillar strategy of containment, fiscal, financial, and long-term structural reforms. Calibrated fiscal and monetary support was provided given the evolving economic situation, cushioning the vulnerable in the lockdown and boosting consumption and investment while unlocking, mindful of fiscal repercussions and entailing debt sustainability. A favourable monetary policy ensured abundant liquidity and immediate relief to debtors via temporary moratoria, while unclogging monetary policy transmission.

The Survey says, India’s GDP is estimated to contract by 7.7% in FY2020-21, composed of a sharp 15.7% decline in the first half and a modest 0.1% fall in the second half. Sector-wise, agriculture has remained the silver lining while contact-based services, manufacturing, construction were hit hardest, and have been recovering steadily. Government consumption and net exports have cushioned the growth from diving further down.

As anticipated, while the lockdown resulted in a 23.9% contraction in GDP in Q1, the recovery has been a V-shaped one as seen in the 7.5% decline in Q2 and the recovery across all key economic indicators. Starting July, a resilient V-shaped recovery is underway, as demonstrated by the recovery in GDP growth in Q2 after the sharp decline in Q1.

As India’s mobility and pandemic trends aligned and improved concomitantly, indicators like E-way bills, rail freight, GST collections and power consumption not only reached pre-pandemic levels but also surpassed previous year levels, it said.

The reignited inter and intrastate movement and record-high monthly GST collections have marked the unlocking of industrial and commercial activity. A sharp rise in commercial paper issuances, easing yields, and sturdy credit growth to MSMEs portend revamped credit flows for enterprises to survive and grow.

Agriculture Green Shoots

Dwelling on the sectoral trends, the Survey says that the year also saw the manufacturing sector’s resilience, rural demand cushioning overall economic activity and structural consumption shifts in booming digital transactions.

It adds that Agriculture is set to cushion the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Indian economy in 2020-21 with a growth of 3.4% in both Q1 and Q2.

A series of progressive reforms undertaken by the government have contributed to nourishing a vibrant agricultural sector, which remains a silver lining to India’s growth story of FY 2020-21.

A palpable V-shaped recovery in industrial production was observed over the year. Manufacturing rebounded and industrial value started to normalize. Indian services sector sustained its recovery from the pandemic driven declines with PMI Services output and new business rising for the third straight month in December.

Bank credit remained subdued in FY 2020-21 amid risk aversion and muted credit appetite. However, credit growth to agriculture and allied activities accelerated to 7.4% in October 2020 from 7.1% in October 2019.

October 2020 saw resilient credit flows to sectors such as construction, trade and hospitality, while bank credit remained muted to the manufacturing sector. Credit growth to the services sector accelerated to 9.5% in October 2020 from 6.5% in October 2019.

High food prices remained a major driver of inflation in 2020. However, inflation in December 2020 fell back into the RBI’s target range of 4+/-2% to reach 4.6% to reach 4.6% year-on-year as compared to 6.9% in November. This was driven by a step fall in food prices, particularly of vegetables, cereals, and protein products and favourable base effects.

The external sector provided an effective cushion to growth with India recording a current account surplus of 3.1% of GDP in the first half of the year, largely supported by strong services exports, and weak demand leading to a sharper contraction in imports (with merchandise imports contracting by 39.7%) than exports (with merchandise exports contracting by 21.2%). Consequently, the Foreign exchange reserves rose to cover 18 months of imports in December 2020.

External debt as a ratio to GDP rose marginally to 21.6% at end-September 2020 from 20.6% at end-March 2020. However, the ratio of foreign exchange reserves to total and short-term debt (original and residual) improved because of the sizable accretion in reserves.

India remained a preferred investment destination in FY 2020-21 with FDI pouring in amidst global asset shifts towards equities and prospects of quicker recovery in emerging economies. Net FPI inflows recorded an all-time monthly high of US$ 9.8 billion in November 2020, as investors’ risk appetite returned, with a renewed search for yield, and US dollar weakened amid global monetary easing and fiscal stimulus packages. India was the only country among emerging markets to receive equity FII inflows in 2020.

Buoyant Sensex and NIFTY resulted in India’s market-capitalisation to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio crossing 100% for the first time since October 2010. This, however, raises concerns on the disconnect between the financial markets and real sector.

Exports are expected to decline by 5.8% and imports by 11.3% in the second half of the year. India is expected to have a Current Account Surplus of 2% of GDP in FY21, a historic high after 17 years.

Gross Value Added growth 

On the supply side, Gross Value Added (GVA) growth is pegged at -7.2% in 2020-21 as against 3.9% in FY:2019-20. Agriculture is set to cushion the shock of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Indian economy in 2020-21 with a growth of 3.4%, while industry and services are estimated to contract by 9.6% and 8.8% during the year.

The Survey underlines that the year 2020 was dominated by the COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing global economic downturn, the most severe one since the Global Financial Crisis. The lockdowns and social distancing norms brought the already slowing global economy to a standstill. Global economic output is estimated to fall by 3.5% in 2020 (IMF January 2021 estimates). In view of this, Governments and central banks across the world deployed a range of policy tools to support their economies such as lowering key policy rates, quantitative easing measures, loan guarantees, cash transfers and fiscal stimulus measures.

India recognized the disruptive impact of the pandemic and charted its own unique path amidst dismal projections by several international institutions of the spread in the country given its huge population, high population density and overburdened health infrastructure.

The Survey observes that the intense lockdown implemented at the start of the pandemic – when India had only a 100 confirmed cases – characterized India’s unique response in several ways. First, the policy response was driven by the findings from both epidemiological and economic research.

Specifically, faced with enormous uncertainty about the potential spread of the pandemic, the policy implemented the Nobel-prize winning research in Hansen and Sargent (2001) that recommends a policy focussed on minimising losses in a worst-case scenario. Faced with an unprecedented pandemic, loss of scores of human lives captured this worst-case scenario.

Moreover, epidemiological research highlighted the importance of an initial, stringent lockdown especially in a country where high population density posed difficulties with respect to social distancing. Therefore, India’s policy humane response that focused on saving human lives, recognised that the short-term pain of an initial, stringent lockdown would lead to long-term gains both in the lives saved and in the pace of the economic recovery. The scores of lives that have been saved and the V-shaped economic recovery that is being witnessed bear testimony to India’s boldness in taking short-term pain for long-term gain.

Second, India recognised that the pandemic impacts both supply and demand in the economy. The slew of reforms – again unique amidst all major economies – were implemented to ensure that the supply-side disruptions, which were inevitable during the lockdown, are minimized in the medium to long-run.

The demand side policy reflected the understanding that aggregate demand, especially that for non-essential items, reflects precautionary motives to save, which inevitably remains high when overall uncertainty is high. Therefore, during the initial months of the pandemic when uncertainty was high and lockdowns imposed economic restrictions, India did not waste precious fiscal resources in trying to pump up discretionary consumption.

 

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Economy

SKUAST-K to hold mega Science Summit on Aug 23-24

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SKUAST-K Mega Science Summit

Srinagar, Aug 21: Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir is hosting a mega first-of-its-kind science summit ‘Kashmir Science Vision-2024’ on August 23-24 at Shalimar campus. The event is expected to bring together leading scientists, researchers, policymakers, entrepreneurs and scholars to discuss and develop science and technology policy for the sustainable future of Jammu and Kashmir with a focus on helping the UT to emerge as a model for Viksit Bharat@2047.

The Kashmir Science Vision Summit will feature a dynamic range of keynote lectures, panel discussions and brainstorming sessions.

These discussions will focus on key areas of regional development like Scientific Innovations & Entrepreneurial Opportunities for exploring how technology can be harnessed to drive socio-economic growth and create new business opportunities, Biomedical & New-Age Sciences for advancing healthcare through innovative medical sciences and improving health outcomes for the region’s residents. Food Security & Sustainability for promoting sustainable agricultural practices to ensure long-term food security and environmental health, Biodiversity Conservation & Disaster Management for developing strategies to protect the region’s unique ecosystems and mitigate the impact of natural disasters will also feature in the two-day summit.

The summit aims to foster collaboration among diverse stakeholders to ensure that scientific advancements translate into meaningful benefits for Jammu and Kashmir.

Vice Chancellor SKUAST-K Prof Nazir Ahmad Ganai said the summit will serve as a catalyst for the region’s sustainable development and strategic growth. “It will be remembered as the spark that ignited science and technology-led future-ready Jammu & Kashmir,” he added.

Pertinent to mention, SKUAST-K is a premier institution dedicated to advancing agricultural sciences and technology. With a commitment to innovation and excellence, the university plays a pivotal role in fostering sustainable development and technological progress in the region.

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Trade

Lenskart enters Kashmir market, opens shop at Regal Chowk

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Lenskart enters Kashmir market

Srinagar: Lenskart, India’s leading eyewear brand, has forayed into the Kashmir valley with the opening of its first outlet at Regal Chowk in Srinagar city. This expansion marks a significant milestone for Lenskart as it continues its mission to provide vision correction solutions to every individual across the country and beyond.

With seven successful stores already established in J&K UT’s Jammu city and plans underway for another outlet in Sanat Nagar, Srinagar, Lenskart aims to extend its presence to every nook and corner of Srinagar city.

“We have plans to expand our reach into other districts of Kashmir soon, ensuring accessibility to quality eyewear products and services for all residents,” said Dr Mohammad Mutaher Zerger, who heads Lenskart’s Portfolio and Franchisee Business Divisions.

Dr Mutaher is a seasoned professional with extensive experience in franchise management. Having previously served at McDonald’s, the new head of franchise at Lenskart brings valuable expertise in expansion strategies and operational excellence. “We are dedicated to providing state-of-the-art sophistication in eyewear technology, coupled with unparalleled customer service,” he added.

Lenskart’s commitment to accessibility and affordability is reflected in its offerings, including the innovative Buy One Get One (BOGO) facility available at all Lenskart outlets and online. Additionally, the brand provides complimentary eye testing facilities, ensuring that customers receive comprehensive care tailored to their needs.

Lenskart enters Kashmir market

Lenskart Founder, Shark Piyush Bansal’s Vision is to give correction-less vision to the entire India.

In line with its dedication to innovation and excellence, Lenskart recently inaugurated a cutting-edge robotic factory in Bhiwandi, where lens production and fittings are carried out with precision and efficiency. This advanced facility underscores Lenskart’s commitment to leveraging technology to deliver superior-quality products to its customers.

Lenskart enters Kashmir market

With a network of 1800 stores across India and a growing presence in international markets such as Singapore, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, and the UAE, Lenskart is poised for further expansion into other countries in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions.

Lenskart’s entry into Kashmir signifies not only its commitment to providing vision correction solutions but also its dedication to empowering individuals with the gift of clear vision, enabling them to lead more fulfilling lives.

 

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Ecology

Economic and Environmental Implications of Sand Mining in Kashmir Division

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Environmental Implications of Sand Mining
Uzma Hameed
Dhaar Mehak M.

Sand mining is the process of extracting sand from in and around the rivers, streams, lakes etc. Sand is also mined from beaches and inland dunes and dredges from ocean beds and river beds. In modern times sand is considered to be an essential raw material for construction purposes. As such, individual and private companies are increasingly demanding sand for construction purposes and this has placed immense pressure on sand resources. As a practice it is becoming an environmental issue as the demand for sand has been persistently witnessing an increase in industry and construction sectors of the economy especially in the developing pockets of the world. In developing nations, including India the annual demand for sand has been witnessing a perpetual rise of 07%. This has led to both an increase in the demand and price of sand in the open market. At the same time, people have been witnessing a profitable venture out of mining sand both legally and illegally leading to a number of issues and concerns.

Mining has been identified as the spine of the construction and infrastructure-centric economic growth and development process of the developing world, India being no exception to the same. Given the geographic extent of the country, the sand resources in the country have been plenty. However, like any other natural resource, the quantum of sand in India is limited. The usage however has been in practice right from the pre-historic times, the demand and usage being all time high in the contemporary times. The first recorded history of mining in India dates back to 1774 when the English company was granted permission by the East India Company for mining coal in the Raniganj coal fields.

After the colonial independence of the country, the growth of mining under the aegis of successive five-year planning processes has been quite speedy. Mining is among the significant economic activities of the country. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contribution of mining in India ranges between 2.2% and 2.5%. Given the historicity associated with mining in the country, its extraction and utilization processes have undergone a major shift towards modernization. The economic reforms of the 1991 and 1993 National Mining Policy further especially contributed towards the growth of the mining sector. The Indian mining industry in contemporary times provides job opportunities to around 7 lakh individuals. Given the diversity of the mining activities across the country, each state specializes in a related activity that it possesses a comparative advantage in especially in light of the reserves.

Given the geographic nature and extent of the region of Jammu and Kashmir, sand deposits in the region have been a common sight. At the same time, given the cold climate of the region, the need for secure housing has always been prioritized by the populace and governance of Jammu and Kashmir. With the evolution of construction processes and techniques, the shift from traditional wooden houses towards modern concrete houses has been widely witnessed. One of the main raw materials used for the construction of such houses has been identified as sand.

There are approximately 261 mineral blocks across the districts of Kashmir amongst whom the majority are situated along the bank of the river Jhelum. The mineral blocks in Kashmir contain sand deposits and various other minerals. One of the mining hotspots of the Kashmir division is the town of Bijbehara, locally known as Vejibror. While Bijbihara is also known as the town of Chinars, it has historically been a significant contributor towards the local economy. The town is located on National Highway 44 along the extended banks of the Jhelum River. It is also known as “Town of Chinars”. It is situated about 45 km from the capital of the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, Srinagar.  Within the Bijbehara town, the area of Gadhanji-Pora is particularly the committed hotspot of mining activities. It is situated approximately half a kilometre away from the Sub-District headquarters of Bijbehara.

According to the stakeholders, the most prolific user of sand is the construction industry. Individuals are increasingly demanding sand for domestic and commercial construction purposes. While there has been an increase in both the demand and prices of the resource, it has placed immense pressure on the local sand resources and deposits. Locally sand is being used in almost every construction-related activity from cement and concrete to plastering, roofing, grouting, painting etc. It is also commonly used in constructions like mortar, concrete, and cement strength, mass and stability.

Because of its smooth texture, better bonding qualities, and low impurity concentration, river sand is the most often utilised in Kashmir due to its quality, quantity and availability. Sand is the key component of concertation. Sand mining is rampant at many places along the Jhelum River, especially in the Bijbehara.

 Given the extensive mining in the region, at certain points, the miners have breached the banks of rivers. The miners often drive their heavy vehicles straight into the water causing huge damages to the bunds along the river. These miners have lately also been using other heavy machinery like machine excavators and bulldozers in attempts to extract more sand in less time. By removing more sand than the rivers can naturally replace with the sediments it carries downstream, sand mining activities carve a deeper and narrower bed. It further goes on to lower the water levels in the river below the usual, speeds up the flow and erodes the banks. The biodiversity within and along the river is damaged. The fishes and other aquatic species that closely rely on the local bio-diversity are increasingly coming under threat.

Abdul Rehman, a local resident and fisherman, who has been fishing for the past 40 years describes his deteriorating experience, “Earlier if I covered an area of 3 km in the river, I would catch 6-8 kilograms of fish. Now, covering the same distance, I barely manage to catch 250 grams”. People from the Pazalpora area of Bijbehara, where the banks have been breached at multiple places, lament that they have been left all the more vulnerable to reoccurring floods because of unthoughtful activities like these.

The sand miners in and around the Bijbehara area of Anantnag district have been vandalizing the Jhelum River illegally. The damage is being increased manifold by the increasing use of heavy machinery for speedy mining of sand. After the devastating floods of 2014, the state government has been spending a significant amount of state money on the restoration, repair and upgrading of the banks of the river Jhelum. The so called and rightly called, ‘sand mafia’ across the valley in general and Bijbehara area in particular is breaching the sensitive river banks for the monetary interest of a few greedy people.

As such, as a collective voice basing our understanding on the facts mentioned above, it falls upon both people and the authorities to look deeper into the issue. As a matter of sustainability, now is the high time that the matter is dealt with an iron fist.

The authors are affiliated with the Department of Economics, Islamic University of Science and Technology and can be reached at dhaarmehak@gmail.com

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